AREAS Framework

WHY

The 10F Consortium's forecasts had to address differential impact without reproducing the hierarchies — Global North/South, developed/developing — that flattened agency and made the analysis read like development reports from fifteen years ago.

WHAT IT IS

A framework Changeist contributed to the 10F Consortium's open-access forecasts. AREAS names five positions actors take relative to any transformation: Architecting, Resisting, Exploiting, Avoiding, Shaped. The same actor can occupy different positions across different forecasts — a state might be architecting opacity while shaped by climate migration. Positions are descriptive rather than prescriptive, and apply equally to states, platforms, networks, and non-state actors.

DESIGN DECISION

The first pass handled differential perspective through archetypal vantage points — capitals, trading floors, streets. It read like The Economist circa 1995. The shift came when we stopped trying to describe where readers sit and started describing what actors are doing. Perspectives became positions. Once that flipped, the framework resolved quickly.

ONE OBSERVATION

The fifth position wasn't there at the start. Four felt complete — the power gradient ran cleanly from most agency to least. When we asked directly whether a fifth existed, Avoiding surfaced — not from external frameworks or analytical gap-scanning, but from our own workshop vocabulary. Parallel systems. Complexity sanctuaries. The language had been sitting in our materials for months without being named as a position. The framework became complete by looking at what we were already saying.

Designed: 2025