A Little Stocktaking
2024: Progress or Precaution?
Welcome to the year that seems to defy forecasting. No one seems to know which way central banks will move (nor, it seems, do central banks), what voters will do (see below), what things like generative AI will change or how (ibid.), if EVs are going forward or backward, or how just about anything will shake out. After having been burned a lot over the past few years, it feels as if more voices who were quick to tout amazing change in the coming year historically, whatever year it was, have pulled back a little, recognizing there are indeed both known and unknown unknowns, and perhaps they are exercising a little more caution.
There continues to be the camp of progress junkies who cast all who might stand in their way as dangerous and destructive pessimists (noting that they often hesitate to describe others' reasons for caution), exercising a kind of reductivist argument that often makes me wonder how they construct their own philosophy. Is it equally reductive?
While this isn't a new argument, one graph in the FT this week made me choke on my coffee a little bit. John Burn-Murdoch, the FT's chief data reporter, measures uses of words like "progress," "advancement," "rise," and "future" against "threat," "worry," "caution," and "risk" since the 1600s, and concludes that the Western culture (here, English, French, German and Spanish industrial cultures) have perhaps become too focused on risk and caution, and isn't talking enough about the future. Ergo, we're experiencing less progress these days. The antidote? Presumably, he and fellow "progress" supporters want us all to talk the market back up, and get an attitude adjustment. Bear in mind these kinds of searches typically don't look for context, just keywords and phrases.
The paper that provoked Burns-Murdoch's search goes a little further, but the end result seems to be a historical portrait of a shift in language concurrent with the industrialization of the countries sampled. It's no shock that the more people generated money from new tools, the more focused the beneficiaries of that wealth became on political economy. But does growth in the power of political economy equal progress today? Are we stuck with a 17th-century model of the Enlightenment forever, or are their other pathways to an improved world?
Is the West Talking Itself into Decline? https://www.ft.com/content/e577411e-3bf2-4fb4-872a-8b7d5e9139d3. 5 Jan. 2024.
This kind of discussion reminds me a lot of being an analyst in research firms where those in business development roles psyched themselves up with positive mantras to sell more research services, and not infrequently tried to goose the analysts to "be more optimistic." Sales commissions are a helluva drug for those who benefit. We've seen it with big VC market beasts such as a16z, which created its own media unit to effectively talk up the future of the particular innovations in which the firm was investing. When this lost influencial power in the market, we got a messy rant in its place. The browbeatings will continue until morale improves.
Maybe, just maybe, what we've learned during that last century in the FT chart is that the world and its systems are complex, and imagining and understanding the risks that some engines of progress bring with them are worth discussing. Maybe, as Rachel Colidcutt pointed out, there are more voices at the table now, and they have something to say.
That we might get to better uses of AI or private space exploration or self-driving cars or what have you if we take the opportunity to explore all of the externalities and potential implications of a given innovation before launching in full bore should seem a positive, though more critically thoughtful approach. If this deliberative, dare we say more democratic point of view, doesn't juice near-term returns, that's an issue for progress proponents to address. Critical analysis isn't just a bad attitude. It's about deciding we might be able to balance risk, externalities, and return, and have a voice in the process.
Maybe we're being cautious at the turn of this year because, well, we've been through some things, and see more challenges ahead. Maybe we're just taking a moment.
Book Updates
So, moving backward to move on, a recap of what's been happening in Changeist world in the closing months of last year.
Future Cultures
Our second book, "Future Cultures: How to Build a Future-Ready Organization Through Leadership," has been out in the world for several months, and reception has been warm. Unlike "How to Future," which soft-launched in semi-lockdown in 2020, we've had the opportunity to actually touch physical copies of "Future Cultures," talk to readers, and enjoy a little of the launch process. We currently list almost 40 international booksellers you can buy from, as well as directly from Kogan Page.
During our recent Research Fellowship at the University of South Australia in Adelaide in November, we were guests of the SA Foresight Community of Practice at our host institution, MOD., where we signed books and talked to fellow futures folks from the region, meeting a nice cross-section of practitioners. We also had a great opportunity to workshop with teams from SA Water in Adelaide and share books with them as well.
Books-in-residence at MOD.
Moving on from our hugely enjoyable month in-residence in Adelaide (read more below or hit the link), we moved on to Dubai for the second annual Dubai Future Forum at the Museum of the Future. Pre-event, we had a chance to sign stacks of both books at Kinokuniya at Dubai Mall, one of our favorite places to load up on print reading when in town. Thanks to the marketing team for giving us a slice of their busy Saturday afternoon to sign.
Signing at Kinokuniya UAE, Dubai Mall
Like most things in Dubai, DFF got larger the second time around! Some 2,000-odd people from the assorted branches of foresight, futures, strategy, innovation and government were in attendance, making it part conference, part prom. We were fortunate to see some of our most valued colleagues, and have some social time with them, which more than offset the dry session content.
The event had evolved from its more tentative first year, but still had a lot of the "greatest hits" flavor of industry journals. We're hoping it pushes a bit harder next year to question the roles and approaches of these allied fields, especially given the youthful cohort now in attendance. It would be a shame to see the next generation fall back into the inward looking focus of so much historical professional discussion. For a practice that is rapidly becoming less and less academic, many conversations still stay within well tread boundaries.
We did have a few minutes at the forum to sign both books for the scrum of folks who lined up to talk with us and pick up a copy. Thank you again to DFF for providing the books to those who lined up. We heard some great stories from practitioners from Peshawar, Shanghai and LA who had used "How to Future" in their own practices, and enjoyed meeting everyone!
Podcasts for the Book(s)
We've also done a smattering of podcasts to discuss the books, including The Near Future Laboratory Podcast with Julian Bleecker and In Clear Focus with Adrian Tennant.
We also had a great one-hour discussion for UNDP's Futures Series, moderated by UNDP Future Fellow and indie futurist Bronwyn Williams. Sign-ups to attend the session were bursting, and quite a crowd showed up from around the globe to join in the chat about Future Cultures with us so close to the end of the year. Thank you again to the UNDP Strategy and Futures Team for the kind invitation, and to the many people who took time out to listen and ask questions.
We still have a couple more shows to record coming up, and if you'd like to have us trouble your airwaves, or to host an internal video chat or brown bag for your organization, get in touch! It's a great book to spark organizational discussions, and really draws out fantastic questions from audiences and participants alike.
How to Future Chinese Edition!
Last but not least, we arrived back at HQ at the end of November to find copies of the new Chinese Simple translation of "How to Future," which is quite exciting as our first translation edition. If you or a colleague are interested in getting a copy, bookshops selling it online so far include BooksChina, Xiaoshuo, Dedao, and Douban. Just ask your friendly bookseller for 未来领导：极度变革时代的领导和创造意义! It makes a great New Year gift! 🧧
How to Future Chinese Simple Edition
Looking Back
One ritual we have at year-end is a bit of introspection and stocktaking within the team. Topically this year, we've worked on topics ranging from future cities to space settlement to AI hallucination to mood management to...death. We've taught or been part of learning experiences in a half-dozen countries, and worked with folks from the Maldives to Uzbekistan, Albania to Paraguay. We also supported, via our signal collection work with UNDP, efforts that reached as far as the 2023 Human Development Report and G7 Finance Ministers meeting.
We've found that it's good to spend a day reviewing all the activities we've been involved in over the past year, discuss how we felt about them, what we'd do differently and which activities we'd like to focus our energies on in the year ahead. We also take a moment to discuss our personal highs and lows, faves and feels.
2024: More Content, More Creation, More Communication
One area are getting back to is communication——writing, speaking, creative short-form packages of fun, provocation or simply condensed evaporation. "How to Future" and "Future Cultures" have been interesting adventures, but they also compressed much of our public output into two densely packed containers, pulling more of our time into capacity-building, which in turn has moved us away from talking about what we think and know from our much wider cross-topical work, travel and research.
We aren't a school, but active explorers, sensemakers, creative catalysts. 2024 will see more of that from us.
Finally, a Look Inside
In the spirit of late holiday prezzies that might or might not fit, we thought we'd share an outtake of our Year-In-Review discussion here——the personal bits, not the Accounts Receivable, mind you. If you're not into personal lists, consider this the end of the newsletter.
If you are, read on, brave person.
Professional highlights of 2023
Susan: Our one month research fellowship in Adelaide immediately comes to mind as a professional highlight of our year. We had a chance to meet with an amazing group of people, both old friends and new, and made some valuable connections with local futurists, curators, analysts, designers, foresight teams and students who we hope to continue working with in 2024. Having four weeks to get to know Adelaide and its wonderful educational institutions, museums, restaurants, wineries and wildlife is an adventure we will not soon forget.
Scott: That was a great experience for sure, and it shed light on the eternal question: "Can you ever be near to too many wineries?" For me, it’s got to be marking our thirtieth year of partnership, and almost twenty years with Changeist, and co-writing a book. There’s something to be said about foresight, resilience, and agility here. As well as a continued appetite for adventure, and the value of separate offices :)
Professional lowlight
Scott: Coming home with COVID-19 from exactly the same trip where we collected our first case in 2022, attending the Dubai Future Forum. I assume it was the result of the sudden mixing of people from many corners of the world, nearly all coming off long-haul flights, much hugging, being stuck in tight elevators, or long waiting lines and hurried into very snug seating while breathing the omnipresent air conditioning. Should we go for a three-peat? Oh, and I’d masked on all long-haul flights leading up to and following the event. Still, it passed quickly. Vaccines matter.
Most interesting person met
Susan: On our very first day in Adelaide, we were invited to the MOD. team’s away day at UniSA’s Mawson Lakes campus, where we began the day with a landing ceremony presided over by Uncle Moogy aka Major Sumner. Uncle Moogy welcomed us to the traditional Country of the Kaurna people of the Adelaide Plains, and we paid our respect to the Elders past, present and future. He both enlightened and entertained us with stories of the Kaurna people, his ancestors and their cultural and artistic practices, and answered our questions thoughtfully and honestly. He was generous and friendly, and even joined us for a tour of the UniSA aviation department’s flight simulator.
Most overplayed trend or issue
Scott: People losing their minds over killer AGI. A lot of humans have to irresponsibly excuse themselves from the loop for us to get to that point, and assumes that we can get past stochastic parrots and actually approach something like cognition in all its complexity, not just super-repetition. Meanwhile, these conversations feel like a bit of a shell game to keep our attention off more mundane power grabs and scams.
I’d rather stay focused on the bow wave of new AI-related models and their deployment in knowledge production in the near and mid-term than get tangled up debating hypotheticals for the sake of attracting attention.
Most underappreciated trend or issue
Scott: Oh, it's me again? There are so many signals around pointing to a resurgence of neo-traditionalism (can that even be said?) that I’m surprised it isn’t more explicitly recognized in mainstream cultural discussion (if that even exists) as a consistent, connected phenomenon rather than a series of loosely related arguments. It may just be so close to daily life in many cultures that it’s hard to see, but “trad” in all things (belief, social roles, law, architecture, etc) feels like more of a subconscious anticipation of social breakdown than a temporary vibe.
Favorite book
Susan: I didn’t read as much non-fiction this year as I usually do, but I’m reading Poverty by America by Matthew Desmond right now and it’s both enlightening and infuriating in equal measure. There’s nothing in this book that will surprise anyone about how capitalism and the U.S. government perpetuate poverty, but what is surprising is how complicit the American public is in accepting poverty as a problem that "just can’t be solved."
I continued to read primarily women, Black, and Hispanic authors this year and was not disappointed. Top of the list were Chain-Gang All-Stars by Nana Kwame Adjei-Brenya, Lone Women by Victor LaValle and The Devil Takes You Home by Gabino Iglesias. (Yes, these are all by men, but the writing is fire and the stories are next level amazing.)
Favorite TV show
Scott: My tastes, on the other hand, run the gamut from spooks (ghosts, phantoms, hauntings) to spooks (espionage, politics), and this shows up in my picks this year. It felt like a pretty spare year in international TV, but amid this, a few shows caught my attention. This included several seasons of SLOW HORSES, the TV adaptation of Mick Herron’s novels about a group of outcast MI5 agents run by a misanthropic ex-spy, brought to sweary, unshowered existence by the great Gary Oldman. Maybe I felt a bit of kinship with a group of capable but awkward specialists parked off campus so as not to embarrass anyone or thwart the brilliant ideas of political hacks (see "Future Cultures" Chapters 1-2).
A couple of other shows that held me on the sofa were BODIES, a time-traveling detective thriller with hints of my recent meta-fave DARK, and DEUTSCHES HAUS (The Interpreter of Silence), about a young, fairly naive translator who finds herself in a pivotal role during the first Auschwitz trial in Frankfurt in 1963. As you might guess, the latter has some heavy moments of testimony, so it's not for a light night in, but it’s definitely a show that packs an emotional and historical punch.
Keeping in line with these reccs, I’ll also highlight Errol Morris’s interview/biography of John Le Carré, THE PIGEON TUNNEL, as engrossing.
Favorite newsletters
Susan: As someone who attended a southern segregation academy in the 70s and suffered the accompanying selective education in all things "American" history, I rely heavily on Heather Cox Richardson’s “Letters from an American” (it’s on Substack, so consider that as needed, I just get the emails and never use the app.) to fill in my deep knowledge gaps in American history. (Aside: I once had a person tell me that the last four digits of their phone number was the year the Civil War ended. Nope, I did not know and couldn’t even begin to guess.) So clearly, I learn something new almost every day and Richardson’s ability to connect past history with current events is exceptional.
My favorite futures-oriented newsletter is “The Futures Lens” from Johannes Kleske, which he’s just recently revived. I can highly recommend his clear-eyed takes on futures work and in his own words: “a personal take on what's emerging, served with warmth, wit, and wisdom.”
Scott: I'll confess, I'm not a big newsletter (compared to some) or podcast consumer. I'm also aware of the percentage of recommendations below which sit on Substack currently, which is prolematic. Hoping for more writers to vote with their feet and move to platforms like this one.
If you follow me, you’ll know I have recommended the Gregor Letter (now retitled Cold Eye Earth) from energy analyst Gregor MacDonald. I’ve followed Gregor for years, and have found his analysis of long-term global energy transition to be clear-headed, as well as clear in explanation. While I get a dozen or so newsletters a week, Gregor’s is the only one I consistently read top-to-bottom and come away feeling educated and, dare I say, optimistic.
For political economy, I also like Policy Tensor, and Pippa Malmgren's newsletter. Her politics aren't mine, but she has a useful view of the world nonetheless.
I generally find some interesting bits in Azeem Azhar’s Exponential View that are useful to tuck away. It's good for concise synthesis.
Meanwhile, I have a backlog of Vaughan Tan’s writing on uncertainty to get to, but I’m appropriately uncertain if I’ll every catch up.
I need more culture newsletters in my life, and continue to look for some diversity in viewpoints. I just signed onto Chris Michaels' Creative R&D newsletter, and looking forward to his roundup. I'm waiting and hoping for a few of the very smart women whose newsletters on arts and media culture to resume publishing.
Most interesting article read
Scott: I don’t usually go in for deeply philosophical articles, but the one piece that made me make audible noises such as “ha ha, yep,” and “omg” was an essay in Aeon by Sara Walker and Lee Cronin on time as an object, according to the holdings of Assembly Theory, a framework for describing the complexity of objects which runs into physics, biology, and a few other areas you may have heard of. I can’t claim to be equipped to fully judge the validity of the theoretical framework itself, but I do know when I’ve read something that unlocks a different understanding of something unrelated in my own mind, and this article had that effect on me.
Thing(s) to watch for in 2024
Scott: A few big things have been on my mind — not cheery or inspiring things — but this is where my head is usually at. The first is the potential shift in political centers of gravity that could come out of the high number of consequential elections taking place in 2024, including of course the United States, the UK, Taiwan, South Africa, India, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and the European Parliament, to name the biggest. The US presidential election, which holds several plot twists yet to come, and associated high stakes Congressional races will have reverberations that can’t be overstated. The best case is the gridlock we know, while the worst case is tough to characterize, other than very bad, and very unstable.
Another item that I've been following for a while is geoengineering. Coming out of COP28, one group that seemed to gain momentum in the vacuum of a weak statement of position are advocates of and investors in geoengineering — everything from carbon removal approaches to solar geoengineering, or tinkering with the atmosphere to reduce heating. I've been monitoring conversations on social media among geoengineering advocates, and the current vibe is reminiscent of the herd movement into crypto and then over to AI. While there is a good deal of serious research happening around geoengineering, the flood of money, hype and opportunists could have an impact both on support for existing carbon reduction targets and the shaping public consciousness (or misframing conflict, see above). And like AI, geoengineering tinkering can have unforeseen impacts, environmentally and politically. The Overton Window can shift quickly, especially as it gets hotter.
Susan: I’m going to be very focused on women in 2024, as I think they may become a driving force on the world stage in ways that few are anticipating. With the overturning of Roe v. Wade in the U.S. we’ve already started to see new lines being drawn in the sand for upcoming issues that are very specifically about women’s rights, bodily autonomy and our place on the political stage. As more autocratic governments promote “traditional values” which are generally anti-woman, anti-LGBTQ+, pretty much anti-anything that isn’t cis white male, women are finding themselves at a crossroads and I don’t think there is much chance that on half of the world’s population will remain a “silent majority” for much longer.
Project you would like to do/practice you would like to explore
Scott: Mmm. This one hurts. Every year since about 2018, the pile of non-work stories I want to write gets slightly taller, and slightly older. Co-producing two non-fiction books in three years is nothing to sneeze at, but I want to get a couple of pieces of fiction more developed, and hopefully finished, before 2024 ends. One in particular, the oldest in the queue, continues to elude me. I'm determined that it will emerge before it becomes outdated, or I do.
Susan: After working in the background for the past few years, I’m ready to speak more in public: join panels, give talks, and discuss more about the work we do at Changeist and my lens on world around us looking forward. I very much enjoyed writing "Future Cultures" and also want to do more creative writing in future, or at least get back to long-form writing about subjects near and dear to my heart that aren’t purely futures-focused.
Project you never started but have to finish
Scott: See previous response.
Susan: I’ve said for years now that I’d like to take up a new hobby, something I can do more of once work-life has slowed down (which will probably be never, but one hopes). I was never a great painter or photographer, but I think a lot about ceramics (I was a good builder, but need to learn to throw), or macramé, or printmaking, really anything to keep my hands busy. I’m such a fidgeter.
Thanks for indulging, and feel free to send us your thoughts in response. We'd love to hear from you!
Wishing you a safe, healthy and fulfilling 2024.
Changeist
